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Analysis of family formation and dissolution processes using multistate demography modelling
Dušek, Zdeněk ; Rychtaříková, Jitka (advisor) ; Kocourková, Jiřina (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the development of the processes of family formation and dissolution in the Czech Republic between 1993 and 2008 using multistate demography. By this method, we analyze probability of transition between individual marriage states and events, which characterise these transitions. The first part of the analysis deals with the population as a whole, while the second part analyses only the part of population in fertile ages. LIPRO program was used to create a model of marital status based on data for the Czech Republic as well as for producing a forecast of population divided by marital status for the years of 2019?2023. Other parts of this thesis support the main aim of the thesis. The level of marriage and divorce rate were analysed between 1993 and 2008 as well as potential factors that could influence the level of above mentioned processes. Rising number of cohabitations could be one of those factors and therefore a special attention is paid to the development of this type of coexistence. Socioeconomic development and family and social policy are mentioned as well, because they could also have significant impact on the processes of formation and dissolution of families. The above mentioned factors and their relationship to the marriage rate are analysed using the...
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Application of (geo)demographic methods in education
Šebestík, Libor ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Fialová, Ludmila (referee)
Application of (geo)demographic methods in education Abstract This master's thesis presents the possibilities of application of demographic, geodemographic and statistical methods on data published by the educational sector. The methods of demographic analysis are represented by the usage of rates, the concept of multistate demography (Markov chains) and the application of life tables. The enrollment ratio at particular levels of education, the average length of schooling and the number of dropouts from school grades are evaluated by these procedures. Markov chains which are based on the probabilities of transition between grades are also examined in terms of their use for forecasting purposes. These methods analyze the situation at the preschool, primary and secondary levels and are used on data from the annual Statistical Yearbooks on Education. In the field of geodemography, the so called preferential model of migration flows is presented. This model examines how applicants for tertiary education prefer or reject the regions of the Czech Republic for their tertiary education studies. The last method is the binary logistic regression which analyzes the inequalities in access to tertiary education. Both preferential model and logistic regression are based on data files on the admission process at...
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Changes in the marital status in the age group from 15 to 59 years in the Czech Republic after 1930
Boušová, Marie ; Fialová, Ludmila (advisor) ; Bartoňová, Dagmar (referee)
Changes in the marital status in the age group from 15 to 59 years in the Czech Republic after 1930 Abstract The aim of this thesis is to analyze the changes in population structure according to the individual marital statuses. For this analysis sex-specific and age-specific nuptuality rates and multistate life tables were use, in order to be able to describe transitions between the individual marital statuses. In the first part of this thesis the data sources and the methods of creating the transversal increment- decrement life tables were described. Following chapters deal with the historical development of the Czech Republic population since the year 1930 and the trends of nuptuality, divorce and mortality. Second part is dedicated to the analysis of the transitions between the individual marital statuses. The findings of this thesis conclude that people in the individual marital states tend to react similarly to the historical events in Czech Republic, unless some events are purposefully aiming to influence only a part of the population. Key words: nuptuality rate, divorce rate, mortality rate, marital status, multistate demography, transversal increment-decrement life tables, Czech Republic
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Application of (geo)demographic methods in education
Šebestík, Libor ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Fialová, Ludmila (referee)
Application of (geo)demographic methods in education Abstract This master's thesis presents the possibilities of application of demographic, geodemographic and statistical methods on data published by the educational sector. The methods of demographic analysis are represented by the usage of rates, the concept of multistate demography (Markov chains) and the application of life tables. The enrollment ratio at particular levels of education, the average length of schooling and the number of dropouts from school grades are evaluated by these procedures. Markov chains which are based on the probabilities of transition between grades are also examined in terms of their use for forecasting purposes. These methods analyze the situation at the preschool, primary and secondary levels and are used on data from the annual Statistical Yearbooks on Education. In the field of geodemography, the so called preferential model of migration flows is presented. This model examines how applicants for tertiary education prefer or reject the regions of the Czech Republic for their tertiary education studies. The last method is the binary logistic regression which analyzes the inequalities in access to tertiary education. Both preferential model and logistic regression are based on data files on the admission process at...
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Changes in the marital status in the age group from 15 to 59 years in the Czech Republic after 1930
Boušová, Marie ; Fialová, Ludmila (advisor) ; Bartoňová, Dagmar (referee)
Changes in the marital status in the age group from 15 to 59 years in the Czech Republic after 1930 Abstract The aim of this thesis is to analyze the changes in population structure according to the individual marital statuses. For this analysis sex-specific and age-specific nuptuality rates and multistate life tables were use, in order to be able to describe transitions between the individual marital statuses. In the first part of this thesis the data sources and the methods of creating the transversal increment- decrement life tables were described. Following chapters deal with the historical development of the Czech Republic population since the year 1930 and the trends of nuptuality, divorce and mortality. Second part is dedicated to the analysis of the transitions between the individual marital statuses. The findings of this thesis conclude that people in the individual marital states tend to react similarly to the historical events in Czech Republic, unless some events are purposefully aiming to influence only a part of the population. Key words: nuptuality rate, divorce rate, mortality rate, marital status, multistate demography, transversal increment-decrement life tables, Czech Republic
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Analysis of family formation and dissolution processes using multistate demography modelling
Dušek, Zdeněk ; Rychtaříková, Jitka (advisor) ; Kocourková, Jiřina (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the development of the processes of family formation and dissolution in the Czech Republic between 1993 and 2008 using multistate demography. By this method, we analyze probability of transition between individual marriage states and events, which characterise these transitions. The first part of the analysis deals with the population as a whole, while the second part analyses only the part of population in fertile ages. LIPRO program was used to create a model of marital status based on data for the Czech Republic as well as for producing a forecast of population divided by marital status for the years of 2019?2023. Other parts of this thesis support the main aim of the thesis. The level of marriage and divorce rate were analysed between 1993 and 2008 as well as potential factors that could influence the level of above mentioned processes. Rising number of cohabitations could be one of those factors and therefore a special attention is paid to the development of this type of coexistence. Socioeconomic development and family and social policy are mentioned as well, because they could also have significant impact on the processes of formation and dissolution of families. The above mentioned factors and their relationship to the marriage rate are analysed using the...
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Multistate Analysis of Unemployment and Additional Statistical Methods for Modelling of Unemployment
Miskolczi, Martina ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Fiala, Tomáš (referee) ; Kotýnková, Magdalena (referee)
Unemployment modelling covers both view of the labour market such as is, economy and knowledge of mathematics, statistics and, thus, econometrics. The importance of unemployment seems to be even more significant after the period of crisis; high unemployment is not only economic burden bud serious social risk and psychological problem as well. In the dissertation thesis, selected models used for unemployment modelling and -- in some cases for its prediction -- are introduced. To be able to predict the future trend of labour market reliably means to be able to plan tools of active and passive employment policies effectively. Alternatively, it means to search programs and supports that help in reduction of unemployment. Specific applications of models for the Czech labour market involve model of multistate life tables, simultaneous econometric models and Phillips curve. Phillips curve of mutual "trade-off" of unemployment and inflation is confirmed in short periods, in longer and long period of time rather fails, it is not reliable. It is not possible to use it for prediction at all; it would be needed to predict inflation. Analogous characteristics has the Beveridge curve. Simultaneous econometric models for number of economically active persons and for unemployment and inflation de facto fail, even though they demonstrate the range of opportunities including point and interval forecasts. Period of economic crisis when changes in labour market principles occur means usually problem for such the models, which work well in periods of stable growth or decline. More, it is difficult to specify these models correctly with regard to threat of multikolinearity. Multistate models aiming at calculation of multistate life tables, or even multistate projection are extremely demanding for input data. But they enable to understand relations or transitions among states, respectively. It is very beneficial tool for comprehension and policy planning in the area of labour market and social affairs in the process of lowering unemployment. Forecasts in such a type of model are possible but difficult because it is necessary to predict probability of transition among states.
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Prognóza vzdělanosti a lidský kapitál
Konrádová, Soňa ; Marek, Luboš (advisor) ; Hlavínová, Hana (referee)
Tato diplomová práce se zabývá vzděláváním obyvatelstva a jeho vlivem na lidský kapitál. Nejprve je popsána historie a současná situace v českém školství. Nechybí ani pokus o mezinárodní srovnání. V další části se věnuji lidskému kapitálu. Je zde uvedena definice lidského kapitálu, způsoby jeho měření a výnosy, které můžou přinést investice do vzdělání. Lidský kapitál je totiž ve velké míře právě dosaženým vzděláním ovlivněn. V poslední části se pokouším o prognózu vzdělanosti, kterou jsem provedla pomocí metod vícestavové demografie, a posléze pak o interpretaci výsledků.
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